The Best Heroes-A Statistical Community Effort

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zelink551
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The Best Heroes-A Statistical Community Effort

Full, updated thread in General Discussion forum: https://greaterthangames.com/forum/topic/sentinels-statistics-project-2893

 

So, as an extension from the Mister Fixer Underpowered? thread, there appears to be desire to start gathering statistics on the most effective heroes, and just some stats in general, this is a really cool community project that could use your help!

 

Please submit games to the following link, and if you see a way that games could be submitted better, certainly post on this thread! We can use all the help we can get :)

 

Here is the link to the fan-made statistics form

Here is a link to the list of submitted games. 737(!) so far!

Data Compilations:

This is a link to the third compillation of stats, after nearly 1000 games. Really cool info, but we need more games!

Edited by: Paul on Jul 26 2013 - 12:48pm
Koey
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Edit: Today's 2 games with 2-3 new players.

Villain: Baron Blade(O)

(# Number of Heroes) Wraith, Legacy, Fanatic 

Megalopolis

Win

 

 

Villain: Akash' Bhuta(O)

(# Number of Heroes) Absolute Zero, Agent Ardent, Bunker, Tempest.

Insula Primalis

Win

[Side Question: Does damage from Limbs count as extra nemesis, forgot to include those. But at no point was AA ever below 10 health so I do not think it mattered.] Answered - Thanks AWP. Okay cool wasn't sure only recently got IR.

 

Greonhal
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Villain [REDACTED](O)

(4)[REDACTED], [REDACTED], [REDACTED], Nightmist

[REDACTED]

Win

Comments: This one was close, but we mostly won thanks to [REDACTED].

Am I doing it right? :-D

awp832
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 i commend your effort,   it would really be better if this could be done on a spreadsheet or something where you just enter data.  But I'm not that computer savvy.  I also want to say that it's unrealistic to start predicting trends until MANY games have come in.   The Arkham Horror stats have literally thousands of games logged in them, which is why they're so useful.   Also this only works if people make a comittment to logging every game they play, not just games they win =p.   Not accusing you or anything, I realize it probably just worked out that way.   But obviously if people only post wins with their favorite character, it's going to skew the data.

 

incidentally, no, limbs don't get nemisis bonuses.   I think the only times the nemesis bonus applies in that fight is for Entoumb and for the Avatar of Destruction attack.


"He robbed from the rich and he-
gave to the poor.
Stood up to the Man and he-
gave him what for. 
Our love for him now,
aint hard to explain,
the hero of Canton,
the man they call "Jayne""

zelink551
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My issue with a spreadsheet is recording turn order, do you guys think we need to differentiate say...

Wraith, Legacy, Visionary

from

Legacy, Visionary, Wraith?

awp832
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 I DO think that player order makes a difference.   But I don't think it makes too much difference,  you could probably ignore it.   I dunno.   If you want to try to work it out that would be cool, but I'm not  how to do a workaround without comprimising the core intent of the project.

 

Incidentally, follow this link to see what I was talking about.   If you look at the bottom tabs and go to "Investigators"  you can see the characters and their win%, along with many other pieces of data.   Patrice is only SECOND best at 76% victory, with Mandy Thompson being top at 77%.   Vincent Lee is near the bottom at around 58%, but he's not dead last, like I expected.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AliZyklaTCWzdEszdXpoRVJQNGltTU5wMi1qWEJnQkE&hl=en#gid=2
 


"He robbed from the rich and he-
gave to the poor.
Stood up to the Man and he-
gave him what for. 
Our love for him now,
aint hard to explain,
the hero of Canton,
the man they call "Jayne""

zelink551
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Thats...really Impressive. Any idea how that was created? As in, do people personally add in their own stats, or was there a forum thread like this, and then someone added all the data in later?

zelink551
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As I posted in the other thread,

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ApaVTp-7PJbQdF85eVZRQnBOX3F...

That is the link to an in progress way to collect data. For those of you with time, patience, and/or know how, please feel free to adapt it to make it work, I just wanted to lay an example groundwork.

TheSoundOfTrees
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(I think order of heroes is important. An online form is a cool idea. As long as data can be extracted in CSV format, we can use many tools )

 

Type : Full Random Setup, Solo

Villain : Akash'bhuta (O)

Heroes : (4) Absolute Zero, Tempest, Wraith, Fanatic

Environment : Megalopolis

Results : Win (no incapacitated hero)

 

Comments :

  • Slow moving game, thanks to Megalopolis.
  • Hero Hp at the end : between 11 and 13, with Tempest focusing on healing at the end.
  • Notable : AZ first did damage, but was soon limited to tank, because of ongoing destruction. Wraith was slow to start.
  • Final move : 7 cards Inventory Barrage + End of Days.

Any view of things that is not strange is false - Neil Gaiman

awp832
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 I really ought to have included that... 

 

Yes, it's mostly automated.   If you had just played a game and wanted to record it, you would go to this link here:   (feel free to mess around, but please don't hit Submit unless you actually played a game).   Tibs is the creator and does regular updates but I'm not entirely sure to what extend things are automated and to what extent he does things himself.   As I said, I believe it's mostly automated, as when I've submitted games in the past the changes immidiately show up on the stats page, if I'm recalling correctly.   Anyway, here's the form to submit a game.   I imagine you could copy most of the code, or contact the creator and ask him how he did it.

 

https://spreadsheets.google.com/viewform?key=paPMgoencsRppq3PEYWXmQQ&hl=en


"He robbed from the rich and he-
gave to the poor.
Stood up to the Man and he-
gave him what for. 
Our love for him now,
aint hard to explain,
the hero of Canton,
the man they call "Jayne""

TheSoundOfTrees
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(Until we have some online solution, I keep archiving games here for later use)

Type : Full Random Setup, Solo

Villain : Apostate (O)

Heroes : (4) Bunker, The Visionary, Tempest, Wraith

Environment : Wagner Mars Base

Results : Win (no incapacitated hero)

Comments :

  • Hard win ! Apostate, with the help of Wagner Base (especially villainous weaponry) manages to bring all his relics out very fast and do tons of damage, while the heroes slowly dispatched relics - untill :
  • Last second ultra combo : all heroes were down to exactly 3 HP when Visionary entered her cocoon and Wraith managed to at last equip her Smoke Bombs.
  • Without the above combo, the game would have been lost, as Apostate still had 40 hp at the time...
  • After a good starting set up, alas destroyed by Apostate, Wraith was really slow. Targeting Computer appeared only in the last turns.
  • Tempest used Localized Hurricane for most of the game, and never had any Rain card in hand.
  • Finishing move : a three card Omnicanon (only use of the canon in the game, as it entered play only one turn before the end) + Visionary finishing the last HP with a Mind Spike.

 


Any view of things that is not strange is false - Neil Gaiman

lynkfox
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Okay

 

So the Forum thing is awesome, a direct aspect of Google Drive - They just do it straight up, and it auto records to a spread sheet.

 

So here is the form

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dFVreEhkOWJYcmlvcDNMbWppejh5aGc6MQ

 

im working right now on manipulating the Spreedsheet to start showing up information like the Arkham horror stats one. 

 

And awp, no one has been trying to draw conclusions yet. You're right, we need -lots- of data, of both wins and looses. But the only way to get that data is to start somewhere! I'll connect this to the wiki too

 

edit:

 

wow.

 

It looks like he updates that spreedsheet manually monthly. There should be a way to automate it, but from what I can tell from the cell pull information, and the (This is updated monthly) near the form link, it appears to be manual. Thats some dedication.

 

Well the form is created, people should start entering their games and their wins, losses. I included a few other things - Promo heroes as their own selection (so we can see is Absolute Zero Elemental Wrath more powerful or not?) and a few survey questions so we can refine the information a little bit more. Most important I think was Incapitated heroes addition. 

 

 

Zelink, not to rain on your parade - Iw ould have used your form if I could, but creating a brand new form makes its own spreadsheet.

 

But maybe you should add the link to your opening post?


Lynkfox.
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http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

zelink551
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Rain all over it :) I don't proclaim to be great at any of this, I'm content with just being a catalyst!

lynkfox
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Great :)

 

But do edit the first post and add a link. I linked from the Wiki too, hopefully that will make it easier for people to find and start submitting games.

 

Wins AND losses people!


Lynkfox.
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ketigid
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Poor Tempest, he got forgotten.

Garou
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The "number of incapacitated heroes" radio buttons should probably have a 0 field as well, or an accidental click could mean you'd have to start the form over again.

lynkfox
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What are you talking about? Tempest has been there all along << >> XD 

 

And good call Garou. Added (And addedtempest too)


Lynkfox.
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TheSoundOfTrees
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Maybe we could link to posts in this thread (or other) in the comment section, for additional informations ? Comments are not usable for statistics - but they can give ideas about the kind of datas that can be useful to add to the survey.


Any view of things that is not strange is false - Neil Gaiman

arenson9
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Do you want to include the alternate villains?

For incapacitated heroes, instead of having a radio button for 0-5 and a free-text field for which heroes, how about:

 

Have five dropdowns for choosing the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th heroes.

Then have a checkbox for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th heroes that allows one to set incapacitated or not.


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If I am not for myself, who will be for me? If not now, when? If I am for myself alone, what am I? -- Hillel

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It's good that the information is on there for future use, but any playtesters should probably not be posting playtest games on here.  Since the characters have not yet reached their final incarnations, we don't want any possible imbalances or massive changes to throw off the intent of the project.  While I think the characters are very close to what they will be, better safe than sorry.

That probably means I won't be posting my games on here for a while.  :(

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i like that. Lets you set it up so that you can also show play order.

Done. Im going to have to try to see if i can move the responses around though, its all crazy out of order now on the spread sheet.:/


Lynkfox.
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flamethrower49
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I also wonder if the Promo heroes should have subdivisions, in some way.  Maybe you'd be able to look at the total number of winning games that Wraith has been in, and then see how many were for each of her different cards.

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I added the link to the form in the top post, and made this topic sticky. Have fun you guys! I love me some statistics :)


Truth is an excuse for a lack of imagination. ~Elim Garak

lollocrox
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Is it me or the form is missing Unity?

Great work, by the way.

lynkfox
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it is I forgot her and the scholar when I updated the format. fix it tonight


Lynkfox.
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lynkfox
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flamethrower49 wrote:

I also wonder if the Promo heroes should have subdivisions, in some way.  Maybe you'd be able to look at the total number of winning games that Wraith has been in, and then see how many were for each of her different cards.


yeah at the moment this is still just data collection. Once we have the data we can display it however we want

Lynkfox.
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zelink551
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Is it worth allowing for 2 person games?

arenson9
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I recommend setting all variables to default to blank. Force people to put in valid information. Don't let them accidentally leave invalid information in place.


Hi. My name's Andy. Feel free to call me Andy, since, ya know, that's my name. (he/him/his)

If I am not for myself, who will be for me? If not now, when? If I am for myself alone, what am I? -- Hillel

arenson9
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Question like 'Did the game feel ...' could use a n/a or maybe an unsure option. Give people a way to _unchoose_ if they click on something but later decide they don't want to report anything for that variable.


Hi. My name's Andy. Feel free to call me Andy, since, ya know, that's my name. (he/him/his)

If I am not for myself, who will be for me? If not now, when? If I am for myself alone, what am I? -- Hillel

arenson9
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For variables that allow people to rate something, I find it useful to give people an exactly middle option. I normally apply this guidelines to questions which ask for a numeric rating, but I wonder if it doesn't also apply to the  'feel' question.

 

I think the 'feel' question is problematic in that it is mixing two different concepts. On the one hand, some of the answers include easy versus challenging. On the other hand one of the answers includes 'good'. What if I think 'easy' is 'good' or if I think 'challenging' is 'good'.

 

Also, I'm not certain that easy and challenging are opposite of each other. There was a lovely post on BGG a while back about the difference between hard vs challenging.

 

All that being said, I think this is an important question. I suggest:

 

How would you rate the difficulty of this game from 1 to 5, where 1 is not difficult at all and 5 is impossible.


Hi. My name's Andy. Feel free to call me Andy, since, ya know, that's my name. (he/him/his)

If I am not for myself, who will be for me? If not now, when? If I am for myself alone, what am I? -- Hillel

awp832
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 This is great.  I just submitted the game I played last night.    There are a couple of things tho:

 

1.   Agree with flamethrower, you should take all the playtesting material down for now, until the expansion is released.

2.  Unity and F6 Unity aren't on the page.   I played with F6 unity.

3.  Instead of "did you win"   I would like to see a bit more detail.   Maybe like:   Hero Victory/ Loss (all heroes incapacitated)/  Loss (Mars Base Explosion) / Loss (Baron Blade Terralunar Beam) / Loss (Voss Minion overrun)/ Loss (REDACTED -you know what I'm talking about =p )  so we can see some of the alternate game over conditions in the stats.


"He robbed from the rich and he-
gave to the poor.
Stood up to the Man and he-
gave him what for. 
Our love for him now,
aint hard to explain,
the hero of Canton,
the man they call "Jayne""

Cosmonaut Zero
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I would recommend against including variant setups like 2 hero games in the overall data. If there's a simple way to exclude certain things like that and preferably break them out into their own statistics, then I don't really see a reason not to collect it. I would certainly be interested to see how drastically the villain win percentages swing with different numbers of heroes. And being able to tell people asking about 2-player games that certain villains are stupid easy or stupid hard but certain others come out about the same would be really cool, as there seem to be a number of people who want to play the game that way.

Also, I like awp's suggestion of breaking down the loss by condition.


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TheSoundOfTrees
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  • Loss : heroes incapacitated/ villain alternate victory condition / environment special

and

  • Win : normal / alternate victory condition

should suffice.

Game apreciation is harder. Sometime you feel you win or lose because of the luck of your, or the villain's, draws, or because the nevironment was helpful or not. Sometime your tactics work perfectly. And so on. But establishing a full list of options for this would take much time - and what we want here are data we can analyze easily.

Why not something like "in what shape were the heroes at the end of the game" in case of victory : High Hp? Medium ? Low ?

Maybe a "state of hero at end of game" [incapacitaded; nearly incapacitated, low HP, medium  HP, nearly intact]  would allow us to see if some heroes are more frequently bashed on than others ?

Anyway, I know have to find where I stocked my old statistic lessons...


Any view of things that is not strange is false - Neil Gaiman

zelink551
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Cosmonaut Zero wrote:

I would recommend against including variant setups like 2 hero games in the overall data. If there's a simple way to exclude certain things like that and preferably break them out into their own statistics, then I don't really see a reason not to collect it. 

Ummm, which way are you going here?

Also, lynkfox, can you share the core spreadsheet with some of us? I think changes could/need to be made :) I really agree that things should default to blank

lynkfox
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Workin on Defaulting to Blank right now (But honestly? I do not know if the pull down menus support default to blank where blank isnt an option - and I really want to restrict this to 3hero games and above right now - 2 hero games would be interesting, but the game is balanced supposedly around 3-5... even if i did include the 6th hero option :P - im looking into it though), and changing the 'How did this game feel' option to a numbered system 1-5

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqClP82b_XgZdFVreEhkOWJYcmlvcDNMbWppejh5aGc

 

you can see the core spreadsheet here, but at the moment Im not opening it up to too many editors. Flamethrower and awp since you two have a lot of experience with this through the Arkham Horror one, if you PM me your google usernames ill add you. We'll go from there - better to not have to many cooks stirring the pot at first.

 

Remember this is all just data right now. We haven't begun to extrapolate any statistics at all, or even format exactly what we -want- to extrapolate.


Lynkfox.
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PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

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Hm yeah that was unclear; there should have been a "however" or something in there. My bad.

I think we should collect 2 hero data, but be careful not to include it when pulling overall win rates. We really only ever want to see it on its own. If it's inconvenient to do that, then it's better to leave it out than pollute the stats with variant plays.

I mean, 2 heroes is an unbalanced unsupported gametype. But wouldn't it be interesting to see HOW unbalanced it is, and it in way it's unbalanced? I feel like if nothing else it would be nice to have something concrete to point to when people ask about 2 hero games so we can explain why it's a bad idea and what to expect if they decide to try it anyway.


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lynkfox
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In order to /force/ peopel to choose heroes for 1-3 (starting off blank that is) it has to be Multiple Choice - if I use a drop down list and leave the first option blank, if they don't select one it puts a blank in the field.

 

I went ahead and put for Hero #3 - None - but if you select this option it invalidates your results for the standard statistics, but provides interesting statistics for a side project

 

So its an option. Better to start collecting that stuff -now- rather than later, and some people who don't realize that the game is 3-5 may try to put a 2hero game in and finding no None put it in the comments... which might be missed when we start inputing all this data

 

Btw, if anyone has the coding skills to find a way to do that data input automatically, that would be awesome.


Lynkfox.
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Koey
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I just submitted response to the 2 games I posted above.

 

I agree that ST cards should not be included as they are still in balancing phase.

Also 2 hero would be interesting, since it is a valid Hero Challenge it should be a valid method to play the game. I think it would also make it an interesting data to collect. (Just make sure in your survey to indicate it is only allowed if H=3 when 2 players).

lynkfox
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Again - its all data collection right now. The excell sheet puts the date and time that the survey was submitted, so its quite easy to go through and disregard any that have the Playtesting heroes/villians/environemnts in them before they are finalized and printed.  Rather than having to add all them in later, i find it easier this way with no drawback or effect on any statistics we derive from them in the future.

 

 

Speaking of Statistics:

 

Here is what I think we should be looking at

 

How often is a Hero in a winning game? (this is also somewhat a stat of popularity mind you so...)

How many games is a Hero reported in?

How many heroes are in the games they win?

How often does each hero win against each Villain? (Set it up like 

Villain 
* Hero 1 win rate
* Hero 2 win rate ect)

How often does a certain environment lead to Loss (To determine the 'harder' environements) - maybe even set it up by villain like above

How often is special Loss Condition met?

What else?


Lynkfox.
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Cosmonaut Zero
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Yeah, win rates for each component are the most important thing. Also, breaking the win rates down by number of heroes would be interesting. Some of the villains actually feel easier with fewer heroes (Spite is the big one), and I'd be interested to see systematic data on that.

Also, the fact that there's a subjective difficulty rating is interesting. I'd be interested to see how closely those match the objective data. It seems plausible to me that there could be certain villains who feel hard but actually the heroes usually beat them.

Another thing I'd be interested to see is did the villain flip. Mainly it's for Gloomweaver, but it would also be interesting on Citizen Dawn, Spite, Ennead. Even Apostate, although that's more of a gauge of playstyle than how the odds come out. Maybe it's overkill? I dunno.


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lynkfox
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well I can throw up that question on the Suvey - we may never figure out how to use it, but it be good to have it i think (done) 


Lynkfox.
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Koey
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lynkfox wrote:

Again - its all data collection right now. The excell sheet puts the date and time that the survey was submitted, so its quite easy to go through and disregard any that have the Playtesting heroes/villians/environemnts in them before they are finalized and printed.  

Fair enough did not think of the time stamp.

Going to add another game just played, just beat Apostate

Clarification: When a card says single source, is it an instance of damage or from one card?

lynkfox
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Probably best Koey if you start a new thread for your questions - gonna try and keep this thread on track :p

 

.... and now slightly off track, having been staring and studying the Arkham Horrors statistics sheet for hints and ideas on how to format ours, I've noticed something.

Awp, Flamethrower? You both played way to much Arkham Horror :P

 

I'm borrowing quite heavily from the AH page, but you can see my (SUPER) Work In Progress here:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqClP82b_XgZdGJKUVJRakJmZ3RMX2pFUjB3MEtBWHc#gid=0


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

awp832
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 This looks pretty sweet,   you're doing great.    and yes, between the two of us we submitted over 300 individual games of Arkham (we played in most of them together, but no double-submissions!) and thats not counting all the games we played before we really started submitting them.  If you motor through it (which we usually did) a game of Arkham takes about 2 hours, so that gives you some idea of how much we played that game =p. 


"He robbed from the rich and he-
gave to the poor.
Stood up to the Man and he-
gave him what for. 
Our love for him now,
aint hard to explain,
the hero of Canton,
the man they call "Jayne""

zelink551
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How about all the 3-4+ hour games at the start. :o

flamethrower49
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Well, we had all those out of the way before the statistics tracking process began. 

zelink551
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That doesn't mean they didn't add to total hours you invested in the game!

lynkfox
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OKay. Back on track :p

 

I think the most interesting page ive made so far will be this one: 

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqClP82b_XgZdGJKUVJRakJmZ3RMX2pFUjB3MEtBWHc#gid=3

 

As you can see that page lays it all out by Villain. I'm doing another page similiar that will lay it out by Hero. Also awesome bout those pages is that once i fill in the information on those two i can have it automatically populate to the other pages.


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

zelink551
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In terms of "length" are you looking for time, or number of rounds? That could perhaps use clarification?

lynkfox
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good call. 

 

both! 

 

(So I added a new question)

 

I don't expect that round one to be filled in often. Its more of an 'Idle curiosity, how long does a game often last?'


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

zelink551
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Oh I think its far more than idle curiosity. It will show if length of game correlates to wins/losses, and if longer combats are better against certain villains, etc. I think it will be quite interesting!

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