Sentinels Statistics Project

325 posts / 0 new
Last post
lynkfox
lynkfox's picture
Offline
Last seen: 5 hours 28 min ago
ModeratorPlaytester
Joined: Nov 01, 2012
Sentinels Statistics Project

I'm cross posting this cause it is quite probable that many players don't head into the Rules form, not wanting to deal with what can come when passionate gamer geeks start debating what a rule means XD

 

We have been collecting game results to start building a comprehensive statistics listing on how effective various heroes are, and how deadly villains and environments are - among many other statistics. It is entirely for fun (at least for me! lol) and I am certain with time, many interesting thing's will come of it.

 

The Project Thread

Check it out  Here: https://sentinelsofthemultiverse.com/forum/topic/the-best-heroes-a-stati...

Due to increased real life commitments, I haven't been able to keep this updated. We are STILL taking data! Don't stop! Arathorn's version below is less frequently updated, but far more intense in its statistics. Keep putting that data in!

 

Alternative, awesome view by Arathorn:

http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/Sentinels1/Overview?:embed=y&:display_count=no which 

 

The Form to enter your own games:

to fill out your own games is linked in that thread  and also here:

 

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1zCJwaHbUeS9VqbIhqZj2zAJ1TuWq5E0lnHWndheq1IM/viewform#start=invite

 

**Please Note, due to the huge number of calculations I have that run of that sheet to make my life easier in updating the Tracking Report, that form can take a while to run through its submit -20-30 seconds is not uncommon. Please be patient and only hit the Submit Button Once.

**Please Note the Second: I have done what I can to fix this - but it still takes 10-15 seconds or so to submit. Please be patient.

**PPlease Note the Third: Now on new  Google Sheets, which should be far far far faster.

 

The Official Monthly Report

Thanks to the hard work of Arathorn, a very comprehensive comparison study is being undertaken with the results. Since I could not continue to handle the work with my Real Life commitments, Arathorn has graciously taken over. He updatest his fairly regularly, and it has GREAT information - Including a page with all the raw data on it! Amazing report, and great information if you trust these sorts of things ;)

Fiew it here: http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/Sentinels1/Overview?:embed=y&:display_count=no

 

The Naive Bayes Difficultly System

Thanks to the hard work of mkgrey, the stats are being inputed into a naive Bayes Difficulty calculation. This works by a point system - the more points, the harder the game, the less the easier. Of course more data is needed to make this really effective, so like above, keep putting in more games!

Find it here: http://x.gray.org/sentinels-of-the-multiverse-difficulty-scores.html

rkcr took this model and put it into an android randomizer app. See it here: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.idunnolol.sotm&hl=en

 

Want to see some general data of your Entries? Or Specific Hero/Villain data?

 

**Please Note: This no longer works. Its going to be back but not for a while.

 

Want to Comment about the Project?  

If you don't mind leaving this thread for the official updates, that be great. Head over to Here to leave comments and suggetions and anything else you want to leave, so we can keep it all in one place (The official thread on the Rules forum) Thanks!

 

Want old information for Comparison?

Head to this Dropbox to get the information. You can even download the raw data (including all my formulas for sorting out information) if you want to find some specific values yourself that I don't compute! (ie, you want to see how many times The Wraith has played with Legacy and Omnitron X against Baron Blade... you can! I leave it up to you to write your own formulas tho :P)

 

Over 4000 Entries as of 7/5/2013!

(actually 4138- we're clearly averaging between 600-700 entries a month, or 27.4 perday)

July 2014 - Removed outdated report links, updated Arathorns report to be the Official Report.

July Update - 4138 entries!

June Update - 3489 entries!

May Update Blurb - 2823 entries!

April Update Blurb - 1817 entries!

March Update Blurb - 934 entries!

Take a look! Have some fun! and certainly, put your own games into the tracker for next month!


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

Edited by: lynkfox on Feb 15 2016 - 8:09pm
lynkfox
lynkfox's picture
Offline
Last seen: 5 hours 28 min ago
ModeratorPlaytester
Joined: Nov 01, 2012

*Noting Feburary Update. Will note this thread sooner   in march :p


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

lynkfox
lynkfox's picture
Offline
Last seen: 5 hours 28 min ago
ModeratorPlaytester
Joined: Nov 01, 2012

 

Okay! The March update is on the sheet! Go check it out!

 

Some interesting developments this month! The Chairmain has lost his top spot of the Most Dangerous villain. Excluding Promos, Matriarch has gotten a nice lead... but if you keep the promos in Cosmic Omnitron had decimated the heroes this month, surging forward into the 50% danger range!

 

Baron Blade has fallen down into the high 20% range, showing that as we get more games that fluke of him being super dangerous is leveling out. Poor Akashbuhuta still rounds out the bottom of the villain pile though for wins, despite being the second most villain played. Well, I guess thats a good thing - we like the earth still standing.

 

 

Heroe wise, Tempest, Legacy and Wraith remain the most popular heroes to play - and Legacy (excluding Promo, playtesting) remains the most powerful hero. Bunker has fallen to the least likely to win a game with a mere 63.29% win rate, followed by Absolute Zero at 64.32 - wraith has jumped from her bottom slot into the solid middle - the high 60's range.

 

A new stat was added on the Most Incapacitated column - if said hero was incapacitated, did the team still go on to win? Again, excluding Promo and Playtesting heroes, you msot certainly want Unity on your side, with a 25.45% chance that if she gets incapacitated you're still going to win the game... but not haka, with a mere 10% chance to still win the game after he goes down... Maybe that just means he's just that crucial to victory?

 

Rook City remains our Top Contender for most dangerous enviroment, and if you want an easy day hit up the Realm of Discord.

 

Cool stuff happened this month - The Self Destruct Sequence went off in Wagner Mars Base! As well as Omnitron getting his first defeat with Distributed Code still in play.

 

Looking for an Easy Game?

 

You Could try Legacy, Ra, Tachyon and Tempest, in the Realms of Discord against Akash'Bhuta (straight percentages)

 

Really want to stack the Deck? Akash'Bhuta has never defated a tea of 3, and never in ... well a lot of environments. So the above should be pretty dang easy!

 

Looking for a Hard Game?

 

Take on the Matriarch in Rook City, with Unity, Mr Fixer, and Nightmist -- Excluding Promo's those 3 heroes and that enviroment is where the Matriarch is the strongest!

 

 

 


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

FeelNFine
FeelNFine's picture
Offline
Last seen: 3 years 9 months ago
Joined: Nov 29, 2012

0:23:13 and 0:23:22 , 3/19/13

Are duplicats (sorry, didn't know you can't hit back)


Is it May yet?

lynkfox
lynkfox's picture
Offline
Last seen: 5 hours 28 min ago
ModeratorPlaytester
Joined: Nov 01, 2012

The Tracker has been updated for April! Go check it out!

 

 

Wow! Shattered timelines is here and amazingly what changes we see now! You can tell people did a lot of playing with all the Shattered Timelines stuff at once - Chrono Ranger and OX both have over 20 games with ST Villains but less than 10 each with the others. Still the games are getting out there and we're seeing some fun new things!

 

Heroes

For instance, now that people have got their hands on Team Leader Tachyon she has quickly become a favorite - shooting up to 140 games in the last month, and taking the lead above even Legacy for Heroes with more than 100 games - 85.21% victory rate, almost 3% more than Legacy! looks like Tachyone makes a better Freedom (#) team leader than the ol Parsons!

 

AbZero is still having trouble, hovering around the 65% range, but Wraith has shot up into the 70s, which seems to be the Median for heroes. That said, Even Expat and Fixer, long said to be the 'Weakest' are only about a percent and a half from hitting that middle ground where it seems that most heroes are found.

 

Eternal Haka continues to be the worst hero to drop out of a fight - if he does, his team has never won once he's hit incap. Excluding the low value promo heroes, Chrono Ranger and Omnitron-X have over a 35% win rate after gettting Incapped. If someone has to go down, these two seem to give the best!

 

Villains

As most expected, Iron Legacy is now dominating the difficulty chart, with a 50.94% loss rate against him. Cosmic Omnitron is still right behind him, with both around the 50 game range. Chairman and Matriarch arent quite giving up their Rank 4 status however, giving a strong showing at 47%.

 

Ambuscade has apparently turned into the jokester of the bunch, droppiong down to a mere 9% loss rate against, with Miss Information and Kismet dropping below Akash too - I guess Choas Bound had a good month in destroying heroes. I do hope to see the Assistant pull up a little stronger, and Kismet as well - Both have been brutal in the games /ive/ played against them so Im hoping they see a stronger showing in months to come!

 

Environments

Rook City remains dominate, and Time Cataclysm is the new set's current favorite with over 100 games. Silver Gulch proves to be the most dangerous, but Ive yet to see anyone Lost in TIme... however we have had 2 Self Destruct sequences go off! (Hate to break it to a one of you guys, that /is/ a loss :P)

 

Other

4 Heroes seems to remain the sweet spot for getting the magic number of 2/3rds wins (What we can now reliably draw as the average win rate) managing such even against Iron Legacy (65% win rate with 4 heroes)

I may be adding a few more data sets - that is, some more organization in the near future - Such as groupings by expansions to see just the expansions data, and perhaps averaging out data amongst expansions to see which expansion leads what categories. Look out for new categories to appear in the Report to be filled in next month

Also, I'm now saving copies of each months report, and the raw data on my computer. I may put them up in a DropBox or something too for general consumptions - this means ill be able to make comparisons month to month (or others will) to see how they fair

 

Again, if you havent seen it yet, the Raw Data sheet has a personal entry tracker - go to the last sheet, put in your username, and change the second field to on, then go back a sheet to see your entries. NOTE! if you put your username in differently, well youll be SoL - if you add a space to the end accidently, it will read it as a different username. There isn't much I can really do about it, unfortunately. Try not to mess up your Username!

 

Oh, and i went through -all- the points and removed some duplicate games i found, so a few of the smaller datapoint groups (ie, some promo heroes) may see a few games lost, but for the most part no difference will be noted.

 

Wanna Try a game no one has done yet?

 

 

Wraith: Rook City, and The Eternal Haka (and one more) against Baron Blade in the Final Wasteland has 0's all around in there

 

Or Bunker Engine of War and Wraith; Price of Freedom  (and someone) against Spite in Silver Gulch 1883 is another set with a  lot of 0s'. Wanting a challenge? Try looking for the lowest Percentage groupings and try your luck!


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

Koey
Koey's picture
Offline
Last seen: 1 year 8 months ago
Playtester
Joined: Nov 20, 2012

Not that statiscally matters much, I wonder how many of those 4 Heroes are played by 2 players.

Its just from what I have seen 4 minds colliding is much differnet than 2 people having to manage 2 Heroes.

mkgray
Offline
Last seen: 3 years 2 months ago
Playtester
Joined: Dec 11, 2012

Nice data.  I took it and generated a naive Bayes win/loss predictor from it and translated that into a "difficulty points" system to estimate how hard any given game is:

http://x.gray.org/sentinels-of-the-multiverse-difficulty-scores.html

Spiff
Spiff's picture
Offline
Last seen: 2 days 2 hours ago
PlaytesterExceeded ExpectationsUnique Capabilities
Joined: Sep 09, 2011

Fantastic!  The data is obviously not completely solid yet though.  No way Miss Information is the easiest villain or that Mad Bomber Blade is only slightly more difficult than his normal version.


Spiff's SotM site: www.spiffworld.com/sotm
Spiff's GSF site: www.spiffworld.com/gsf
Spiff's Tactics site: www.spiffworld.com/tactics

lynkfox
lynkfox's picture
Offline
Last seen: 5 hours 28 min ago
ModeratorPlaytester
Joined: Nov 01, 2012

I love it! But spiff is right, several of them still need a /lot/ more data to be properly analyized.


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

mkgray
Offline
Last seen: 3 years 2 months ago
Playtester
Joined: Dec 11, 2012

Yeah, I agree some of it seems a bit off (particularly Miss Information), but in the data she has (by some margin) the highest win rate (93%) for the heroes, and over more the 50 games.  But, I suspect there's some sample bias, which is hard to correct for, but I also suspect that some villains feel harder even though their actual win rates are quite comparable to others.

I'll run it again in a couple months once there's more data.

lynkfox
lynkfox's picture
Offline
Last seen: 5 hours 28 min ago
ModeratorPlaytester
Joined: Nov 01, 2012

Added a Dropbox link ( https://www.dropbox.com/sh/9t6pyl7zb76wony/ynMJKqGZWP ) to get the archived data that ill be storing. This includes the Raw Data up to that point, if people want to fool around with custom searches, like Specific teams and such.


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

Spiff
Spiff's picture
Offline
Last seen: 2 days 2 hours ago
PlaytesterExceeded ExpectationsUnique Capabilities
Joined: Sep 09, 2011

Once the data gets to the point where we think it's reliable, I'd love to add this to the Randomizer so that when it shows you the random lineup for a game it can also give you an indicator of how easy/hard that game is likely to be.


Spiff's SotM site: www.spiffworld.com/sotm
Spiff's GSF site: www.spiffworld.com/gsf
Spiff's Tactics site: www.spiffworld.com/tactics

youperguy
Offline
Last seen: 2 years 9 months ago
Joined: Nov 30, 2012

That would be cool.

arenson9
arenson9's picture
Offline
Last seen: 1 day 20 hours ago
ModeratorPlaytester
Joined: Aug 08, 2011

Anyone from the company that makes Sentinels Sidekick care to comment on the plausability of adding functionality to Sentinels Sidekick so that it could facilitate reporting the results of a game?


Hi. My name's Andy. Feel free to call me Andy, since, ya know, that's my name. (he/him/his)

If I am not for myself, who will be for me? If not now, when? If I am for myself alone, what am I? -- Hillel

codermike
codermike's picture
Offline
Last seen: 2 weeks 6 days ago
Playtester
Joined: Apr 13, 2013

While waiting for the May monthly report to come out I downloaded a copy of the raw data spreadsheet and started pulling some info out of it. I was looking at Environment/Villain pairs. The number of games per pair is still too low to be able to make any statements about the results but I was surprised that there are some pairings that have never occurred.

Akash'bhuta has never appeared at The Block despite there being 151 games played there.

The Chairman has never appeared at The Final Wasteland after 166 battles fought there.

Spite has never participated in a battle at Silver Gulch after 140 battles occurred there.

The Chairman has not appeared in the Time Cataclysm. There have been 206 games there.

Iron Legacy has been played twice at the Pike Industrial Complex and once at the Ruins of Atlantis. He has never been defeated at either location.

Cosmic Omnitron has never wreaked havoc at Rook City after 209 games played at Rook City. La Capitan has only menaced the city twice but won on both occasions.

Looking forward to the official report :)


Make Mine Sentinels
kickthetable.com

mkgray
Offline
Last seen: 3 years 2 months ago
Playtester
Joined: Dec 11, 2012

FYI, I've built an updated version of the naive Bayes difficulty model (and made it so I'll be able to update it more frequently), and updated the web page.  There's no huge changes, but I added some data on some advanced villains.  In general, there's not enough data to draw firm conlusions about villains on advanced mode, but in a few cases, they (preliminarily) appear to be so much harder than their base villain it was worth mentioning.

Both Miss Information and The Ennead rise in difficulty profoundly on the advanced setting, seemingly.  But, those conclusions are based on 18 and 40 games respectively, so it would be good to get more data.

It's interesting, given people's initial reaction, that basic Miss Information continues to be the easiest villain (tied with Gloomweaver), with only 6 hero defeats in 86 games.

The gap between Baron Blade and the Mad Bomber version has widened meaningfully with more data.

http://x.gray.org/sentinels-of-the-multiverse-difficulty-scores.html

lynkfox
lynkfox's picture
Offline
Last seen: 5 hours 28 min ago
ModeratorPlaytester
Joined: Nov 01, 2012

Update for everyone 5/5/13

 

This is a very busy week for me at work. I thought I'd find some time to finish this out over the weekend, but didnt.

 

Tonight, I got the Villians, Indivdiual Villans, Heroes, and Environmentpages updated with the current data. I saved the data I am working with to update the Individual Hero Page soon. It probably will be weds.

 

But the data that everyone really wants, how 'effective' a hero is or how 'dangerous' a villain is there and ready to go.

 

Interesting tnote, as Heores start to hit the 350-500 game marks, Legacy has certainly lost his top mark to TlT and even The Scholar, and Yes. The Dreamer was more dangerous than her previous information indicated, jumping up to a 32.09% loss against rate.

 

 

also, it seems a little less than half the games played are solo. Interesting.

 

 

As I said, Ill be updating the 'Indivdiual Hero Page' come Weds.

 


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

rkcr
Offline
Last seen: 2 years 9 months ago
Joined: May 12, 2013

Hey all - I took mkgray's score system and integrated it into an Android app for randomly selecting game setups: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.idunnolol.sotm

I did a test run of it last night and it worked great; the first mission was a bit too easy (at around 75%) and then we bumped it up to a lot harder difficulty (40%) and it was quite challenging.

Enjoy!

Pydro
Pydro's picture
Online
Last seen: 11 min 44 sec ago
ModeratorPlaytester
Joined: May 19, 2012

That is very cool. Thanks!


Civilized men are more discourteous than savages because they know they can be impolite without having their skulls split, as a general thing.
-Robert E. Howard, "The Tower of the Elephant"

lynkfox
lynkfox's picture
Offline
Last seen: 5 hours 28 min ago
ModeratorPlaytester
Joined: Nov 01, 2012

May Update

 

Time Time time!

 

May found me far more busy than I expected. Work, Progress, and a lot of other things in life delayed the Update for 5 days. Even then I wasn't able to finish it. However, I have moved forward with a diffrent plan.

 

The Individual Villain and Individual Hero pages on the report have been removed. I have instead replaced them (well at this time just hero) look up function simlar to the look up your username function on the Statistics page. If  you go to that same link for the Username look up, you can also select from a drop down menu of Villains and Heroes, selecting one will allow you to view the stats for that hero or villain individually,just like  the stats on the individual pages. 

 

This is kinda awesome in two ways - 1) I don't have to do nearly as much work and 2) We can pull information I wasn't pulling before. You can see now that you can look up the actual individual advanced rates for each hero rather than just the generic. And thats just the start. I can probably  roll in some formula's to find out other aspects, like the best 2 pair combos of heroes, or other things that may be of interest to the avid gamer.  

 

More still needs to be added - i need to add the Team Size and the Position trackers to Heroes, and do all the Villain  formulas. But over the course of this month Ill get them added. And even better, that is all live data, up to the minute with all the current entries (so you may see some weird numbers on occassion - people often put in incorrect data, such as saying Heroes Incapacitated when everyone was alive, or saying Win=Nowhen it was a yes and other things that I often have to fix.)

 

In other news, we had 2800 games on the tracker. (as of today were over 3k in the raw data)

 

That's just amazing! Amaaazing!


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

Belteshazzar
Offline
Last seen: 4 years 3 months ago
Joined: Mar 22, 2013

That's huge Lynkfox. I know we say this all the time, but thank you, thank you, thank you for the work you put in! We all really appreciate it and enjoy the fruit of your labor.

lynkfox
lynkfox's picture
Offline
Last seen: 5 hours 28 min ago
ModeratorPlaytester
Joined: Nov 01, 2012

Middle of May Update!

 

As Pointed out on the BGG Forums, the data between Normal and Advanced for  villians really needs to be clearly seperated. Overall is kind of a useless stat. SO that being said, theyve been seperated.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqClP82b_XgZdGJKUVJRakJmZ3RMX2pFUjB3MEtBWHc#gid=1

 

you can now see the Normal Games first, and then the Advanced games second!

 

I haven't updated the By Difficulty below, but i will in the future.

 

In other news, the Look Up A Hero section is finished, being able to look  up Total games against a villain or just advanced (it matters less for a hero if it is adv or not, because the hero plays the same), Environment, and Position and Team Size.

 

as well as Flipped and Flipped Percentage


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

mkgray
Offline
Last seen: 3 years 2 months ago
Playtester
Joined: Dec 11, 2012

I've updated the difficulty estimator page and json data files.  No major moves since the last model, with only a few things moving more than 15 points.

Bunker, Engine of War, Eternal Haka, The Scholar and La Capitan both appear to be harder than previous estimates.

Freedom Tempest and Horus of Two Horizons both appear to be more difficult than previous estimates.

Another interesting milestone is that there's now enough data for the many of the Advanced villains to validate the assumption that the advanced side is harder than the basic side.  For some of the villains with fewer than 30 matches recorded, there's still an inversion, presumably due to sample selection issues (players who know what they're doing are more likely to choose Advanced villains).

We still need more Advanced games with several villains, many of them already-hard-on-Basic (The Chairman, Iron Legacy, The Dreamer, Cosmic Omnitron, and The Matriarch) but a couple not-too-hard (Spite and Mad Bomber Blade), all of which really need more games to estimate their difficulty.

Additionally, the data suggests La Capitan's advanced mode isn't much harder than Basic, which seems like we need more data.

As far as the data suggests, we can also identify the hardest possible game (using basic villains), and the easiest possible game:

Hardest: 3 players, Mr. Fixer, Bunker[Engine of War], and Absolute Zero[Elemental Wrath] vs. Iron Legacy in Rook City.  Expected win rate: 8%

Easiest (without 2 Legacies): 4 players, Greatest Legacy, Team Leader Tachyon, Dark Visionary, and Omnitron X in the Final Wasteland vs. Gloomweaver.  Expected win rate: 99%

The strongest hero team vs. the strongest villain/environment pairup should be pretty easy for the heroes, but noone has tried.  The reverse (weakest heros, weakest villains) should be more of a typical matchup, but again, noone has tried it yet.

http://x.gray.org/sentinels-of-the-multiverse-difficulty-scores.html

mkgray
Offline
Last seen: 3 years 2 months ago
Playtester
Joined: Dec 11, 2012

Another observation:

Of the games recorded, the heroes have never lost if the net difficulty was below -276 (and there have been 38 games played with lower difficulty than that).  A single game of TLT, DV, O-X and Tempest lost to Miss Information with a difficulty of -276.  That's the only loss below difficulty -224, out of 150 recorded games.

Similarly, the heroes have never won if the net difficulty was above 203 and only two matches (out of 46) have ever won with a difficulty of 172 or higher.

Ronway
Ronway's picture
Online
Last seen: 2 min 46 sec ago
PlaytesterTruth Seeker
Joined: Aug 02, 2011

Hmm... If I did my calculations right, Bunker, Fixer, and Fanatic against Chairman in Ruins of Atlantic is at 206 should yield a victory fairly easily. Just have to get Bunker and Fixer incapped so Bunker cna keep returning Wrathful Retribution into hand and Fixer keep putting Aegis back into play. Might take 3 Wrathful, but it is doable. As long as Fanatic gets lucky with her card draws.

Hearteater
Offline
Last seen: 4 years 1 week ago
Joined: May 24, 2013

I do not understand how Plague Rat can be so high.  I seriously think I can beat him with any combination of heroes trivially.  I've soloed him with just Nightmist (using H=3).  He seems Gloomweaver-level to me.  Not to mention there is no way he is above La Capitan.  She's vastly more brutal.  And Omnitron is above her?  Not a chance.  That isn't even a close comparison.  Clearly I need to submit more game.

Foote
Foote's picture
Offline
Last seen: 5 days 22 hours ago
PlaytesterHarmony
Joined: Apr 09, 2013

Well to be fair, all nightmist needs is Mistform and the amulet against a villain with no minions and just a ton of one high damage one shots. I wouldn't base your opinion of the Rat around a particular hero who is perfectly built to handle that kind of situation.

I have not seen that difficulty estimator before. I really like it! Gonna book mark that and use it for my next few game nights. Great work.

JimmytheRat
Offline
Last seen: 1 year 8 months ago
Joined: May 25, 2013

Omnitron also has a bunch of hugely damaging/debilitating nuke cards that can really ruin your day, especially if they come out at the wrong time.  Tech Singularity can easily kill equipment-dependent heroes, especially on advanced or with damage bonuses in play.  Likewise Sedative Flechettes can wreck most defensive strategies.  And if you happen to get Electro-pulse Explosives played during the environment turn, you're generally going to either be in a world of hurt or TPK'd.  It's usually not the drones that kill heroes, it's the board wipes and the spike damage.

Matchstickman
Matchstickman's picture
Offline
Last seen: 1 day 10 hours ago
Playtester
Joined: Apr 10, 2012

Using a single hero (even with H=3) is not indicative of a balanced game, certain cards will miss the Hero entirely and certain cards will hit that Hero more than once. If you were playing a 3 player game and it came down to just Nightmist in mist form tank for the win then you've lost 2/3rds of your team, I can't see how you wouldn't consider that a hard fight.


Stop lurking, it makes you look like a villain target
When you do things right, people won’t be sure you’ve done anything at all

Temporary image until an H emoticon is added!

lynkfox
lynkfox's picture
Offline
Last seen: 5 hours 28 min ago
ModeratorPlaytester
Joined: Nov 01, 2012

YMMV. Thats why we do the stats.

 

Also, Plague Rat does Irreducable damage, and with the right combination of infections and limited ongoing removal, he starts doing 3-5 or more damage to each hero each turn. And thats without any of his one shot damages. Ive seen him take legacy down to less than 10 hp in the space of 2 turns.


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

Hearteater
Offline
Last seen: 4 years 1 week ago
Joined: May 24, 2013

I suppose it's possible.  I just beat him with Bunker, Haka, Mr. Fixer and Absolute Zero at Pikes last night.  And I've never played AZ or Fixer, and Haka and Bunker only once.  It was a sloppy game as a result and I lost Bunker (stupidly...I miscounted damage by one) and AZ, but AZ was shut down by the "all dmg toxic" Environment Vats anyway.  But Haka and Fixer were basically impossible to kill at that point, despite both being infected.  I just find that without a +dmg environment, Plague Rat doesn't get enough damage boost of his own to make him a threat.  I actually did this game with the worst heroes I had available to see if maybe I had always lucked into a great counter hero against PR.  He still feels just a step up from Gloomweaver.

Foote
Foote's picture
Offline
Last seen: 5 days 22 hours ago
PlaytesterHarmony
Joined: Apr 09, 2013

To be fair, Mr. Fixer is probably one of the best heros against Plauge Rat. For what thats worth.

arenson9
arenson9's picture
Offline
Last seen: 1 day 20 hours ago
ModeratorPlaytester
Joined: Aug 08, 2011

Are you keeping Infected cards on incapacitated heroes?


Hi. My name's Andy. Feel free to call me Andy, since, ya know, that's my name. (he/him/his)

If I am not for myself, who will be for me? If not now, when? If I am for myself alone, what am I? -- Hillel

Hearteater
Offline
Last seen: 4 years 1 week ago
Joined: May 24, 2013

Yes I am.  I'm wondering if I'm doing something else wrong with him (or in general), because I just can't see losing to him except to extremely bad luck or lack of experience.  Maybe I should post a play-by-play thread to see if someone catches something wrong.  Heck, I didn't even learn about Jack Knife on Mr. Fixer and how it works with Plague Rat until after that game (I used the chain tool to negate most of his one-shot damage).  But Incapacitated Bunker's return a card from trash power plus Haka with two Ground Pounds meant I was invulnerble the rest of the game.

Ameena
Ameena's picture
Offline
Last seen: 16 hours 33 min ago
Joined: Oct 15, 2012

Um, doesn't Ground Pound only negate non-hero damage? So heroes would still be hitting themselves if Infected. The thing that tends to get us with Plague Rat isn't so much that he does lots of little hits of damage (though that is one aspect). It's more that most of the damage is irreducible, so stuff like Fortitude, Stealth, and Ta Moko do nothing. Plus buffs like Galvanise become unwelcome as soon as someone becomes Infected (unless that someone is, say, Fanatic, who can build up for a Wrathful Retribution, or Mr Fixer, who can Jack Handle or Driving Mantis it elsewhere). It also doesn't help if Afflicted Frenzy comes out, because then heroes start hitting each other, and continue to do so even if they become incapacitated as long as they're Infected.

We find Plague Rat to be one of the more difficult villains, up there with the Matriarch, La Capitan, and Kismet with the villains who regularly beat us. Maybe it's easier with more heroes but we only use three.


I am the Wordweaver...

Basically, I like writing stuff ;)

rkcr
Offline
Last seen: 2 years 9 months ago
Joined: May 12, 2013

mkgray wrote:

I've updated the difficulty estimator page and json data files.

Neat, I'll update the app at some point.  Do you mind if I have the app hit the JSON directly or should I rehost?

I've got two requests for the JSON data, if you've got time:

1. Validate the JSON so that it can be parsed without modification.  Right now it's got trailing commas so it needs a lenient parser to work.

2. Add "advanced" points to the villains that have it.  (I've done it internally in the app like so: { "name": "Baron Blade", "points": -55, "advanced": 20 }).

Thanks!

 

mkgray
Offline
Last seen: 3 years 2 months ago
Playtester
Joined: Dec 11, 2012

I've updated the json generator to be more strict.  If you do reasonably aggressive caching (ttl >= 1 day) feel free to hit it directly.

I've added the advanced points, but only for villains that have at least 30 games logged, and added a note on the ones with both relatively low data and suspicuous deltas.

I've also added advanced to the json, unfiltered, but I also added "advcount" which specifies the number of matches against that villain in advanced mode.  I would be very skeptical of all villains with advcount < 50 and would disregard all with advcount < 30.  More specifically, I'd use a minimum difficulty for advanced villains as basic+75, unless there's >75 games logged, and only Baron Blade has that many.

For example, even with >50 games, Apostate/Advanced appears to be barely more difficult than Apostate/Basic, which seems possible, but unlikely.

I've also updated to the latest version of the spreadsheet.  No huge moves, but Gloomweaver seems harder and Omnitron seems easier than before.

BlueHairedMeerkat
BlueHairedMeerkat's picture
Offline
Last seen: 1 day 2 hours ago
Playtester
Joined: Nov 25, 2012

Advanced Apostate being not much harder than Basic isn't unlikely; it's a rougher start, but if you deal with the Tome at the start then it's less likely to pop out when the Runes and/or Orb are protecting it. It's probably the smallest gap between basic and advanced of any villain.


“You gotta have blue hair."
-Reckless

rkcr
Offline
Last seen: 2 years 9 months ago
Joined: May 12, 2013

mkgray wrote:

I've updated the json generator to be more strict.

There's a problem with "scale" now - missing trailing brackets.  I usually verify my JSON with http://jsonlint.com/, helps a ton.

mkgray wrote:

No huge moves, but Gloomweaver seems harder and Omnitron seems easier than before.

I'd like to think that was a game I recently logged.  For someone who was theoretically so easy he obliterated us...  though I blame Rook City, screw that environment.

mkgray
Offline
Last seen: 3 years 2 months ago
Playtester
Joined: Dec 11, 2012

Fixed the trailing bracket issue.  It should validate now.

lynkfox
lynkfox's picture
Offline
Last seen: 5 hours 28 min ago
ModeratorPlaytester
Joined: Nov 01, 2012

Ill be updating the Stats tonight (Monday night)

 

Sorry. I got home from work tonight and pretty much collapsed into bed. 


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

lynkfox
lynkfox's picture
Offline
Last seen: 5 hours 28 min ago
ModeratorPlaytester
Joined: Nov 01, 2012

June Stats Posted! (6/3/14)

 

The June Stats are up. Remember, Ive removed the individual information pages - you can look them up directly from the Raw Stats file by going to the last sheet.

 

You can also download the sheet for your own use from the dropbox. Don't forget that!

 

 

Poor Miss Information has dropped to the bottom of the pack, but she is still pretty brutal in Advanced mood. Speaking of advanced mode, I got a PM just as I started to update the form, Vex85 said he had 100++ advanced games to enter. So they willbe in for the next month!

 

And the stats have gone about and radically changed advanced wise as well - Lots of flux there, but were getting up to the 100games area per villain (or... mostly there) so that should start to look pretty good.

 

Iron Legacy still dominates the top, but Cosmic Omnitron is much harder than his rating suggets. The Dreamer has really coem up into her own as well. 

 

We also had our first 6 hero game against Iron legacy! For a win! Congrats, FryGuy! He left a comment - I thought Id share it

Iron Legacy at the Time Cataclysm using Team Leader Tachyon, Tempest; Freedom, Wraith: Price of Freedom, Bunker Engine of War, Absolute Zero Elemental Wrath, and Golem Unity. No Incaps!

 

"Jeez this fight is insane.   Picked Time Cataclysm because Metropolis doesn't make much thematic sense (Even Iron Legacy in his evil mode isn't targeting innocents).   Tach was at 14 before she took a turn. This was won mostly on the back of some nice interactions with Unity and pushing Legacy under his HIT EVERYONE side. Stealth Bot and a couple Throat Jabs basically managed to stop the group from dying outright, and Bunker lost both his ammo drops before getting to use them. Unity had Swift going, and then raptors to keep him lowish, while AZ slowly pushed him into the low 10s at which point an Omni-Cannon managed to blow him out of the air.    Would have been all but impossible if Unity hadn't started with Pylon to get Swift and Stealth down at the start. Also starting with a Final Evolution that hits everyone for 3 is not nice. No chance they would have won this on Advanced."

Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

JimmytheRat
Offline
Last seen: 1 year 8 months ago
Joined: May 25, 2013

For the "Omnitron's Devices After Omnitron died" game-end condition, the summary lists all 10 as defeats, but in fact there are 3 defeats and 7 victories with that condition.  Is that intended to be a failure-only condition rather than a generic one?

lynkfox
lynkfox's picture
Offline
Last seen: 5 hours 28 min ago
ModeratorPlaytester
Joined: Nov 01, 2012

nah i probably put it in wrong. I'll fix it tonight


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

ketigid
Offline
Last seen: 1 month 4 weeks ago
Joined: Oct 11, 2011

In heroes tab, Team Size (Normal), Heroes = 5, games = 283, wins = 297!? 104.95%?

brytehfryguy
Offline
Last seen: 1 year 9 months ago
Joined: Apr 25, 2013

The 4 player advanced Matriarch was mis-entered. Correct one follows it.

lynkfox
lynkfox's picture
Offline
Last seen: 5 hours 28 min ago
ModeratorPlaytester
Joined: Nov 01, 2012

ketigid wrote:

In heroes tab, Team Size (Normal), Heroes = 5, games = 283, wins = 297!? 104.95%?

 

 

Yeah i guess i never updated my 5 Hero Team Win formulas to remove the advanced wins from it as well. Its bene updated.

 

 

287 237 82.58%


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

lynkfox
lynkfox's picture
Offline
Last seen: 5 hours 28 min ago
ModeratorPlaytester
Joined: Nov 01, 2012

July Update

 

July 4th delayed the update a little bit, with family obligations and what not. But the update is now available for your purusal. 

 

Not much to say in this one! I dont remember if I got around to correcting the Omnitron snafu yet (about devices inplay and wins/losses) but if I can keep it in my head Ill sit down and look through the code tonight after work.

 

Other than that, stats are still fluctuating a little bit - you can see Miss Information climbed a few ranks and the Dreamer is tearing em /up/. As usual, these new version is available in the drop box for comparison to last months. 

 

Enjoy!


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

Arathorn
Offline
Last seen: 2 years 2 months ago
Joined: Jul 25, 2013

Hey all,

 

I love the work that's been done on capturing a bunch of games. I took a shot at putting them into a form that allows more detailed investigation than the initial reports being created. They are up to date as of July 22. I've not been able to establish a reading connection to the output google document (yet). I think it may be possible, but I've not been able to yet.

 

Anyway, you can see my efforts at http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/Sentinels1/Overview?:embed=y&:di... which I think provide some interesting insights (enough so I'd love to see this linked to on the front page).

 

Some initial insights:

  • The Dreamer is the worst villain for moving up in # of heroes. She's pretty easy with 3, tough against 4, and brutal against 5. No other villains comes close. The Ennead is the only other one that is harder with more players.
  • Citizen Dawn is pretty even against any # of players.
  • Wagner Mars Base, in particular, seems different depending on the villain. Seems easy for the heroes to beat the Ennead there but much harder for Mad Bomber Baron Blade.
  • The previous observation, particularly, but many others, are very limited by sample size. MORE GAMES, PLEASE!
  • There may be some "good" and "bad", statistically, match-ups for heroes and villains, but, again, sample size. Some interesting data, at least.
  • Picking heroes vs. choosing randomly didn't have as big an impact as I expected. On the order of 2-10%.

 

I'm sure lots more people can discover more, if they are interested.

 

Arathorn

(Edit: Fixed link)


"All that is gold does not glitter..."

PePe QuiCoSE
Offline
Last seen: 1 month 2 weeks ago
Joined: Jul 06, 2013

i have just started going over this, but AWESOME work. I know how much time and dedication a simple thing like this takes. And it gives great info for scenario-based campaigns or how to avoid theme-traps beyond the obvious ones.

Greywind
Greywind's picture
Offline
Last seen: 3 months 2 weeks ago
Playtester
Joined: Feb 23, 2013

I assume the blank spots in the various amount to "no data available".

Pages